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Toronto real estate statistics (RSS)
Everyday we are bombarded with information from a wide variety of sources. Some we have become accustom to ignoring, like advertising, and others we are told should be seen as authorities on facts about our world and how it effects us. News media is generally believed to be trustworthy and yet I keep hearing and reading fearmongering and out of context facts or at least without perspective.
I thoroughly agitated today while listening to the a news radio station today. They had a story on the
Toronto area real estate markets, or it could have been all of Ontario, and were questioning whether we were heading into "another bubble". They were talking about the increase sales of something around 70% "year over year for the month of December" and the huge increase in average sale price. The only thing I could think of is "Why are they not asking WHY" because if they did the numbers would not be nearly so surprising or indicative of a potential problem.
So what really happened? First of all "Year over Year", for December, just means the change for the month of December from 2008 to 2009 ( in this instance) and does not take into consideration any previous Decembers or whatever else has happened in any other month. Fortunately the Toronto area real estate markets are bigger than just one month per year and they affect and are affected by many different events and factors.
In this case the "news" station was not noting the simple fact that last December the real estate markets were very slow, due to a general perception of uncertainty and economic risk. There was an election in the States and the world economy was heading down rather quickly. This meant that fewer people were willing to commit to a large mortgage and fewer were willing to buy the very expensive homes. For freehold homes on the resale market only 125 out of 1692 homes sold, in December 2008, were sold for $700,000. That is only 7.39% were as in 2007 it was over 11%. This caused the Average price to drop dramatically, for which the news people were reporting a crash in prices, even though an individual home really only decreased in value by about 3%. This year the volume of sales is back up and at a historically hight level, with an increase of 19% over 2007 (for December on the Toronto Real Estate Board's MLS® system). However, that means that the increase in home sold, compared to December 2008, was 215% which would be alarming if it had not been for the drop in volume last year. Overall 2009 saw 87,308 homes sold in the Greater Toronto Area on the TREB MLS® system which was less then the number of sales in 2007.
As far as the average price, it increased by 14% over December 2008, but only 4.3% over December 2007. Horror of horrors that's just over a 2% per year increases when annualized. The reason for most of this increase in average sale price is the same reason why we had an inflated decrease in 2008, the composition of what is selling has changed again. Those $700,000 plus homes that were harder to sell in 2008 are selling again and account for 11.8% of the freehold resale real estate transactions.
There was also a statement that the markets are expected to cool down later this year and have smaller year over year increases. Well that's a no brainer. Seeing as the sales volumes were in a slump last year for the first 3 months it makes sense that as this market carries on stably the difference will decrease as we approach the months were last years sales were more normal and not affected by the uncertainty that people were feeling at the end of 2008 and early 2009.
They were commenting on how the HST is likely to cool down the real estate markets. This is very true about the new home markets as most new homes will cost an extra 8% due to the added tax. Especially for freehold homes that are less likely to be under the $400,000 price range where there are rebates available. On the resale side the HST only affects the the fees related to buying or selling and not the price of the home itself. For resale homes there may be an increase in value and demand as an 8% gap in prices between new and resale is instantly created on July 1st.
The facts are that the economy is doing fairly well, all things considering, our lending markets are fairly secure and interest rates are still very low and are likely to stay "historically low" for a while even if they do rise as the year goes on. Most importantly, there are a lot of people that want to buy homes, either upgrading, downsizing or buying their first home. We have not been in a "bubble" in this millennium, as the economics behind the real estate market (in the GTA) are still very sound with high demand and reasonable affordability. I really hope that there will be a resurgence in the "investigative" side of journalism very soon, people who ask "Why" before parroting statistics that they don't understand, solely to meet a deadline or cause panic.
The important thing to note is "Don't Panic" last years dip was entirely related to people putting their plans on hold because they were nervous. Now the prices are higher and likely to continue in that direction, preferably in a sustainable manner, and the best way to keep homes in your realm of affordability, if it is currently borderline, is to be in the market by owning. Not irresponsibly so, but that is were having the right agent comes into play, one that listens to your needs and helps you find the balance of what you need and want to keep your investment as safe as possible.
The Greater Toronto Area real estate markets are finishing off the year with a boom. September 2009 had 8,196 homes ( both freehold and condominium) through the Toronto Real Estate Board's (TREB's) MLS® system with an average sale price of $406,877.
In the Richmond Hill MLS® districts there were 225 detached homes sold out of 403 available homes with an average sale price, for the three districts, of $627,700. This is a huge jump up from last years 126 homes sold in the Richmond Hill districts and a mere 6,424 homes sold in the GTA in 2008.
Now is a great time to buy or sell a home in Richmond Hill, Aurora or anywhere in the Greater Toronto Area.
First A quick update on this years Toronto and GTA real estate markets. Most of us recognized that 2009 started off as a very slow year. Buyer's were nervous and their savings had been decimated or worse. But the real estate market started to bounce back in March. The Total number of home sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board's MLS® system in March, April and May 2009 were only slightly lower than the 2008 numbers, before the markets started to slow down.
Real estate was far hotter, this summer, than the weather. June 2009 set an all time record for most homes sold, in the month of June, with 10,955 home sold. July was only just short of 10,000 home and August put in a very respectable 8,035 home sales. This compared with 2007 is only 24 less than the number of homes sold, in the Greater Toronto Area, for August and the average sale price was up over $26,000 from August 2007 to August 2009 at $387,921.
This year there have been more sales in the first 8 months that in the same month for 2008 despite the sluggish start. September is shaping up to be another good month for home sales with over 3,300 sales in the first half with an average sale price of $393,818.
This is proof that the Toronto area real estate markets have weathered the global downturn and that there never was a bubble in our prices. What we experienced last fall and winter was due to people being nervous about the economy, mainly the American economy, and the possible outcomes of the US election. Now that confidence is rising we are well placed to home values rise again at a reasonable level.
2007's real estate markets seem to be unstoppable. Once again October sets a new Toronto
MLS® record for the number of homes sold smashing the previous October record (Oct 2003) by 10% and sending the total home sales, for 2007, over 81,500 homes sold. That is just 1,500 short of the final number of homes sold in 2006 with two months to go, in which we would usually expect to see about 10,000 sales more. On top of that the sales volume in Toronto are expected to be extra high in November and December as home buyers are trying to avoid the new municipal land transfer tax which comes into effect on homes purchased after January 1st, 2008 and closing after February 1st, 2008.
The average purchase price for a home on the Toronto
MLS® system in October, 2007, was $394,646 up from last October's $356,423.
In Richmond Hill's 3
MLS® districts (N03,N04 and N05) there were 396 homes sold with the majority (211 homes) in the South end (N03) with a high number of Condominiums and an average sale price of $408,291 where as in the North end (N05, Oak Ridges down to Gamble Rd.) the there were only 68 homes sold, mostly detached home, with an average sale price of $491,850.
Toronto home's averaged $522,800 for the 1,602 homes that sold in October. That said there are still areas where you can get a detached home for under $400,000.
Real estate markets in the Toronto area and York Region are still very strong and it is still expected to continue being strong with stead price increases for the next few years. Making now a great time to buy or move if you haven't already.
If you would like more information feel free to contact me or fill out a "home search request" or " Home
Evaluation request" on my website
www.AndrewHodgeREALTOR.comTalk to you soon.
Toronto's real estate markets keep motoring along. In July 2007 there were 1,590 homes sold in the central districts on the Toronto MLS® system. This would account for the down town core and everything between Dufferin and Victoria Park, South of Steeles, with the DVP as the eastern boundary south of Eglinton Ave. That is an increase of 24.3% over last year's 1,279 Toronto homes sold.
The average sold price in the Toronto Central districts was $470,464 up 9.9% from July 2006's $428,031 and the median home sale prices in central Toronto raised from last years $313,200 to $334,500. The one thing that Toronto still has is variety. The average home sold prices vary widely from district to district. The lowest average sold price was $329,339 in the C8 district which is predominantly condominiums. Where as the highest average home sold price was in the C12 district with and average home sale price of $1,442,216.
So far, in 2007, there have been 10,591 homes sold in the central
Toronto real estate markets which is up 12% from last years 9,450. Even with the potential new land transfer tax, that may get the go ahead if the City or Toronto does not figure another way to fix their budget issues, the real estate markets are booming with a sales to active listings ratio of 64.7% in July 2007 for the central Toronto districts.
It is still a great time to buy or sell Toronto real estate. Please let me know if you are looking for
Toronto, Ontario, homes for sale or if you want to
sell you Toronto home or condo fast.
Genworth Financial has published there summer 2007 "Housing Outlook" that provides insightful analysis of the Canadian real estate markets (nationally, provincially, and for major cities) as well as provides their predictions for the next few years.
The "Housing Outlook", according to Genworth Financial, look strong for the next few years with stead growth in home values as well as sales volumes (with a slight exception of new home sales in 2007). They sight economic factors like the strength of the Canadian Dollar and the growing GDP, personal incomes, and a variety of other national and regional factors in support of these views.
The price increases that they are predicting are higher than I was expecting, so if you are currently renting it would be a good idea to find out if you can afford a home and buy now before you are priced out of the market. a 0% down mortgage may have an insurance premium but it is, most often, worth it if you plan to live in the home for a few years, especially if the prices increase as Genworth predicts.
I am posting a copy of the
Toronto Housing Outlook on my
Toronto real estate "Market Watch" page for anyone to request. You do need to provide a valid email address as that is how it will be sent to you. Your privacy is assured and I will not send you endless spam or sell, give or otherwise disseminate your information to anyone except where required by the laws covering Ontario.
Currently renting? Do you want to know if you can afford a home? Call me at 416-278-2335 and we will find out with the help of one of my great mortgage professional. No obligations and credit issues may not be as big an issue as you thought, if you have credit issues.
Real estate markets in the Toronto area has far surpassed expectations in the first half of the year with just over 50,000 sales posted in the months of January to June. Going into July the activity seems to have decreased some what. This is to be expected slightly as many people flee the city for vacations to cottages or other more exotic locals, in order to escape the everyday life of a 9 to 5er's (or what ever hours one calls a work day).
This tends to have the biggest effect on the higher priced homes as the people most able to afford them are also the people who are most able to afford a cottage where they would rather be, rather than shuffling from house to house looking for the one that is significantly better than their current home, at a reasonable price.
The unadjusted sales numbers for July, (1st to 9:30am July 30th) is 8643 homes that were sold firm. This number is likely to be higher than the official numbers, posted by the Toronto Real Estate Board in the end of the first week of August, as they may contain some duplicate listings or land listings that were improperly categorized on the MLS® system. (sorry I do not have the access to perform those types of filters). This represents an increase of 22% over July 2006's 7082 homes sold through the Toronto MLS® system.
The
Toronto real estate sales volume for homes in June was 10,451 which means that July's sales are 17.3% less than in June. This may seem like a lot, but in 2006 the decrease was 18.9% and at the time we were calling it a very strong sales month.
It looks like we could be expecting close to, if not over 90,000 sales by the end of the year with steady price increases of as much as 5% over the previous year.
I will update you when the official numbers are posted.
Thanks to the efforts of the Toronto Real Estate Board and the general public, that lobbied the municipal government, the City of Toronto land transfer tax has been postponed until after the provincial election in October. There was a narrow win of 23 votes to 22 in favour of postponing a decission on this proposed tax.
Now we will all have to lobby the Ontario government to try and convince them that Toronto needs some financial help to keep it afloat, in order to avoid the real estate tax being passed shortly after the election is held.
Real estate in Toronto has remained a very hot market, however an increase in land transfer taxes would have a heavy effect on home values in the City of Toronto. That said anyone living just outside of the Toronto city boundaries might see a marked increase in their home's values.
The Toronto Real Estate Board has posted the October real estate market statistics for homes traded on the Toronto MLS® system. The volume of sales was up from September but only 95.85% of the levels in October 2005. With a total of 8,876 homes sold and an average sale price of $356,423 which is up 4.08% from last year at this time.
Currently the number of homes listed on the Toronto MLS® system are up in all districts. Although, in the Central Districts the increase is only by 32 homes, bringing the number to 3,532 available homes. The Central Toronto districts have also gone against the grain on the volume of sales with an increase in home sales totalling 1,317 for October. All of the other districts have seen slight decreases in sales volume along with slight increases in home listings.
I will post more specific statistics for Richmond Hill, Aurora and Newmarket over the next few days.
