The real estate markets so far this year have been exceptionally active, with near all time record monthly sales volumes and fairly significant increases in average home sale prices. In June we saw a drop in sales to, a still reasonable, 8,442 home sales, with an average home sale price of $435,034.
The big news is that this year the "normal" pattern has changed. With May and June showing progressive decreases in volume when in most years they would be the most active sales months. As far as the Toronto real estate markets are concerned; it is like we are 2 months ahead of normal, peaking in April instead of June. So, why? Well a big part of this is probably related to the perceived expenses related to the now active HST. The idea of avoiding the HST, by closing before July 1st 2010, and paying 8% less for all related services has made home buyers extra eager to move this spring.
The people who have benefited the most from this strong spring has been the Sellers, since they are the ones that usually pay for the real estate agents commissions, which account for the biggest part of the increased expenses. Yes, a REALTOR®'s services are not cheap, although I would argue that they are very often worth what you pay.... but I am a little biased on that one.
So what does this mean for the real estate markets over the nest few months. Well, if you are a buyer it is a great time to get very active in your search. The main reason for that is that there is a fairly good sized supply of homes and a fair number of the general public are still thinking that the HST makes buying a house a lot more expensive, so they may postpone their searches for a while. That combined with the usual summer market conditions that often cause a slight dip in sales volumes in the summer may add up to some great deals with less buying competition. A great opportunity to find a motivated Seller for the cost of around $160 in taxes on your closing costs. That's it, only $160, since the Buyer's agent is most often paid for by the Sellers through the Seller's agent.
In the long term, being later this year and on, we will probably see that people become apathetic with the HST, taking it for granted, just like we all did with the GST shortly after it was introduced. At that time it will be business as usual. As for the potential for reductions in the costs of services; I think that is unlikely, based also on the experiences of the GST.
The GST was supposed to take the "hidden taxes" that were paid throughout the production and distribution process and give them transparency, for the consumer, buy summing them up at the end point of sale so that everyone knew how much tax they were really paying. By allowing the businesses to claim the tax credits, as they purchased materials and other business expenses, the end price of products and services were supposed to go down at least relative to the savings the companies would get. However, I doubt that many people can say that they saw any significant decrease in retail prices that could be contributed to the GST system instead of improvements in efficiencies, cheaper imported materials or foreign labour markets and the aspects of competition related them. This is also likely to be the case in the real estate markets.
Competition in the real estate markets already means that commissions have become much more flexible in the past seven, plus, years that I have been a full time real estate sales representative. It have changed the face of many of the real estate brokerages throughout the Greater Toronto Area giving rise to brokerages like Right At Home Realty Inc., who focus on providing their representatives with the services that are required without having to charge for extra "brick and mortar" office space that the REALTORS® are, very often, not using. This allows the individual REALTOR® to be more competitive and quicker to respond to clients needs that in many traditional brokerages, which is the main reason that I, and many more, moved ( for me it was from a Century 21 franchise to Right At Home almost 4 years ago).
But I digress... The real estate markets are likely to see a slight dip in sales over the next couple of months to be followed by a small surge, as buyer's realize that they still need to have a home to live in and that the costs are still just as affordable as they were in the spring. This would be similar, although smaller in effect, to the market reaction at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 when the perception of the world coming to an end, through world recession and the U.S.A.'s election uncertainties. In the end life had to go on and people still needed to buy and sell homes and, statistically speaking, they were still affordable even as they do today.
So, If you are thinking of buying a home now is a great time to get actively searching with the help of someone like myself. If you are looking to sell you can still expect a fairly good price, but the higher your urgency to sell is the more likely you will have to be prepared to negotiate with offers that have lower initial offerings. At the end of the day both the Buyers and the Sellers have to agree to the value of the property in order to get a sale and everyone involved needs to be realistic in order for that to happen (with the exception that all parties have equally unrealistic expectations that lean in the same direction and nobody, like a REALTOR®, educates the parties [particularly their Client if a REALTOR® is involved] to the true value of the current real estate values). The Greater Toronto Area'a real estate markets are not about to stall completely and we are still likely to see healthy sales throughout the rest of the year so there is no need to panic in either direction, but it is always wise to get representation and know what are realistic expectations for your needs.
More in depth statistical reviews for Richmond Hill, Aurora and York Region's real estate markets will be posted soon.
Please feel free to call or email me if you are considering buying or selling a home, in York Region or the Toronto area, to get insightful representation and the results that we all want.
